This is a spin off from the current thread on economic development. However, since I am addressing two specific items I thought new blog entry was warranted.
The useful life of a significant investment, be it an outlet mall or a residential/retail complex, has to range to at least 20-50 years for there to be an acceptable rate of return, particularly if governmental subsidies or tax incentives are included. Therefore, a large investment like Tanger Outlets (just over the county line) or 140 West Franklin represents a bet on the future. In the case of these two projects the bets on the future could not be more different.
The Tanger Outlet bet is that the future will be very much like the recent past in that low transporation costs will persist, allowing large volumes of goods to be transported long distances to a place where people get in their large personal vehicles and travel 10-100 miles to buy these goods. In aligning themselves with this bet on the future Alamance County is arranging its infrastructure, tax base, and utility services to allow for car travel to shopping destinations along the highway.
The 140 West bet is that transportation costs will rise at an above average rate in the future and that creating denser living and shopping opportunities will becoming increasingly attractive as the expense of living in a distant suburb where every errand or activity involves a car ride becomes prohibitive. Ironically, perhaps, Chapel Hill and Orange County, by aligning themselves with 140 West bet are taking the view that future will be more like the pre-suburban past in that the economic efficiencies of dense living will revitalize our urban centers and that the far suburbs will revert to agricultural activies as increase transporation costs tip the economic balance back to more local foods.
Personally, I am of the 140 West view. That's why when I bought my first house in Pennsylvania it was in the town of Kennet Square, and now I live in Chapel Hill. It is my view that the suburban phenomena is a temporary condition driven by the availabilty of cheap gasoline and the one-time shift from one to two wager earner households. If I am correct, 30 years from now people will be living in 140 West and enjoying a good meal made from local foods at restaurants just down the stairs, and Tanger Outlets will be an empty shell along the highway looking for a new use.
To address some other views discussed on the site... While I like 140 West as a project and investement, I do recognize that more is needed. We need to continue to look for ways to encourage high tech and light manufacturing activity in Orange County. I am excluding heavy manufacturing not out of liberal NIMBYism but due to the fact that Orange County has no structural advantage for heavy industry, e.g. no deep water port, no nearby raw materials. To that end I find it unfortunate that we are converting the old Duke Energy Building to residential use (I wanted to see the IFC move the the vacant sorority on Hillsborough Street) instead of a place for some of our high-tech start ups to grow into. Also, every time I drive out of Carrboro through White Cross I see several vacant buildings and properties suitable to light industry. These are the types of projects that I suggest that Orange County focus on.
Issues: